Analysis: What would happen if Biden decided to leave the race? | CNN Politics (2024)

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Joe Biden’s spotty debate performance immediately triggered new questions from worried Democrats about whether he would leave the presidential race.

It would not be an easy process since Biden is already the Democrats’ presumptive nominee and the overwhelming choice of primary voters. He faced little opposition during the primary season, and the fact that he won nearly all of the party’s delegates means it’s very unlikely he’d be forced out of the race against his will.

“This isn’t the ’60s. Voters choose the nominee. He is the nominee,” said CNN analyst and Democratic strategist David Axelrod, reacting to Biden’s performance at the debate Thursday night on CNN.

Former President Donald Trump and President Joe Biden debate at CNN's Atlanta studios on June 27, 2024. Will Lanzoni/CNN Related article Takeaways from CNN’s presidential debate with Biden and Trump

That current primary system, which empowers primary voters over party bigwigs, essentially sprang from discontent after Democrats selected Vice President Hubert Humphrey as their nominee in 1968. Even after President Lyndon Johnson bowed out of the presidential race that year, recognizing his fading popularity and opposition to the war in Vietnam, Humphrey represented a continuation of Johnson’s Vietnam policy at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago. Violence broke out when protesters clashed with police as Humphrey accepted the nomination.

Things would be very different in 2024 if Biden decided to leave the race, although Democrats’ convention will return to Chicago in August.

As wefirst wroteback in February,if the leading candidate was to drop out of the campaign after most primaries or even during the convention, individual delegates would need to select the party’s nominee on the convention floor (or, potentially, during avirtual roll call).

That would shine a spotlight on the normally niche question of who those actual delegates are. The Democratic Party set a deadline of June 22 for states to select the more than 3,900 delegates –almost all of them currently pledged to Biden – allocated as part of the primary process.

These delegates aren’t just pledged to vote for Biden; they’re also approved by his campaign. So while a majority of convention delegates coulddecide to pick a new nominee, doing so would require massive defections from the president’s own supporters. It also means that if Biden dropped out of the race, it would largely be Biden backers who would be responsible for picking his replacement.

Who could replace Biden?

You can assume, for instance, that Vice President Kamala Harris would be a top contender to be on the ballot in such a scenario. But there would be other potential candidates who previously argued they could run a more effective campaign against former President Donald Trump.

Would someone like California Gov. Gavin Newsom –who offered unqualified support for Biden in the wake of Thursday’s debate –challenge Harris at the convention? Settling on a replacement could be divisive and ugly. It would be up to the delegates to decide, in a series of votes after frantic lobbying, who to pick.

On the Democratic side, there is also another group to consider: the“superdelegates,”a group of about 700 senior party leaders and elected officials who are automatically delegates to the convention based on their position. Under normal party rules, they can’t vote on the first ballot if they could swing the nomination, but they’re free to vote on subsequent ballots.

What if a candidate left the race after the convention?

It would take a drastic event for a candidate to leave the race in the few months between a party’s nominating convention in the summer and the general election in November.

Democrats and Republicans have slightly different methods of dealing with this possibility. You can imagine the end result would probably be that the running mate stepped up to be on the general election ballot, but that is not necessarily guaranteed.

Democrats –The Democratic National Committee is empowered to fill a vacancy on the national ticket after the convention under party rules, after the party chair consults with Democratic governors and congressional leadership.

Republicans –If a vacancy occurs on the Republican side, the Republican National Committee can either reconvene the national convention or select a new candidate itself.

Would the running mate automatically become the nominee?

An in-depthCongressional Research Servicememo also notes that if an incumbent president becomes incapacitated after winning the party’s nomination, the 25th Amendment would elevate the vice president to the presidency, but party rules would determine who rises to become the party’s nominee.

Neither party, according to the CRS, requires that the presidential candidate’s running mate be elevated to the top of the ticket, though that would obviously be the most likely scenario.

Has a candidate ever left the race after the convention?

In modern times, per the CRS, the Democrat running for vice president in 1972, Sen.Thomas Eagleton, was forced to step aside after the convention after it was discovered that he was treated for mental illness. (1972 was a very different time! Today, thankfully, there is not nearly the stigma attached to mental health.)

The DNC actually needed to convene a meeting to affirm Sargent Shriver as Democratic nominee George McGovern’s second-choice running mate.

What if a president-elect was incapacitated after the election?

If a president-elect was to die, timing is again important.

Under the Constitution, it is electors meeting in state capitols who technically cast votes for the presidency. While some states require that they vote for the winner of the election in their state, in others they have leeway.

The CRS memo, which cites several congressional hearings on the subject, suggests it would clearly make sense for a vice president-elect to simply assume the role of president-elect, but the law itself is murky.

Under the 20th Amendment, if a president-elect dies, his or her running mate, the vice president-elect, becomes president.

There could be some question, for instance, about when exactly a person becomes president-elect. Is it after the electors meet in December, or after Congress meets to count Electoral College votes on January 6?

Analysis: What would happen if Biden decided to leave the race? | CNN Politics (2024)

FAQs

How many people watched the CNN presidential debate? ›

CNN's Thursday night debate between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump was watched by 51.27 million viewers on television, according to Nielsen data. The 90-minute debate, which sent shockwaves through the political world, was simulcast across 22 networks.

Who is Joe Biden running with? ›

Joe Biden, the 46th and current president of the United States, announced his candidacy for re-election for a second presidential term on April 25, 2023, with Vice President Kamala Harris as his running mate.

Who runs the presidential debate? ›

The Commission on Presidential Debates (CPD) is a nonprofit corporation established in 1987 under the joint sponsorship of the Democratic and Republican political parties in the United States.

When was the last presidential debate? ›

The first debate took place on September 29, 2020. The next debate was scheduled to take place on October 15 but was later canceled due to Trump's COVID-19 diagnosis and refusal to appear remotely rather than in person. As a result, 2020 had the fewest debates since 1996. The final debate took place on October 22.

How many people viewed the 2024 presidential debate? ›

How ratings for first presidential debate of 2024 compare with past debates. The much-anticipated debate on Thursday night between President Joe Biden and former President Donald Trump drew an estimated 51.27 million viewers to the CNN presentation, Nielsen and CNN reported on Friday.

How many debates are there in 2024? ›

How many more debates will there be for 2024? There are no more presidential debates scheduled before the election. Mr. Biden and Trump agreed to only two debates — one hosted by CNN and the other by ABC News.

What has Biden done so far? ›

Nearly 11 million jobs have been created since President Biden took office – including 750,000 manufacturing jobs. The unemployment rate is at a 50-year low, and a record number of small businesses have started since President Biden took office.

What are the 5 requirements to be president? ›

Legal requirements for presidential candidates have remained the same since the year Washington accepted the presidency. As directed by the Constitution, a presidential candidate must be a natural born citizen of the United States, a resident for 14 years, and 35 years of age or older.

What did Biden do as VP? ›

Vice President Biden has convened sessions of the President's Cabinet, led interagency efforts, and worked with Congress in his fight to raise the living standards of middle class Americans, reduce gun violence, address violence against women, and end cancer as we know it.

Who was the first president to debate? ›

Which presidential campaign produced the first nationally televised debate? The typical answer to that question is 1960, Kennedy v. Nixon.

Are presidential debates mandatory? ›

While the Commission on Presidential Debates' main goal is to ensure that general election debates are held every four years between the leading presidential and vice presidential candidates, the debates aren't required.

How did the Republican Party form? ›

The Party began as a coalition of anti-slavery Conscience Whigs such as Zachariah Chandler and Free Soilers such as Salmon P. Chase. The first anti-Nebraska local meeting where "Republican" was suggested as a name for a new anti-slavery party was held in a Ripon, Wisconsin schoolhouse on March 20, 1854.

When was the last US presidential? ›

The 2020 United States presidential election was the 59th quadrennial presidential election, held on Tuesday, November 3, 2020.

Who is leading the presidential poll? ›

President: general election, 2024 AVG.
June 282,315Biden 43% Trump 45%
June 21-2310,159Biden 44% Trump 44%
June 17-211,878Biden 49% Trump 50%
June 5-212,192Biden 42% Trump 44% Kennedy 14%
June 5-212,029
21 more rows

How to attend a presidential debate? ›

The presidential debates are primarily television productions with limited numbers of audience seats available. Distribution of tickets is handled entirely by the Commission on Presidential Debates, and no tickets are sold to the public.

How many viewers watch the presidential debate? ›

Biden-Trump CNN Presidential Debate Watched by More Than 51 Million Viewers Across 17 Networks, According to Nielsen (UPDATED)

How long is the CNN presidential debate? ›

Now it's all up to the candidates. But before we kick things off, here are a few key points about how the night will unfold: This will be a 90-minute debate, starting at 9 p.m. ET from our studios in Atlanta. Our colleagues, Jake Tapper and Dana Bash, will moderate. There's no studio audience.

Who was the first televised presidential debate between? ›

That TV studio format is not unlike the first televised presidential debates in 1960 between then-Sen. John F. Kennedy and then-Vice President Richard Nixon.

Is the presidential debate televised? ›

How can I watch the presidential debate? CNN will broadcast the debate on its cable channel. Other news channels will broadcast pre-debate commentary prior to the showing a simulcast of the CNN debate.

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