Election latest: Rishi Sunak warns of Labour 'supermajority' as election campaign enters final 48 hours (2024)

Nothing says two days from polls opening like a 2.45am start on a campaign battle bus.

By 5am the pack of bleary-eyed reporters following the Tory campaign were shivering in the refrigerated section of an Ocado distribution centre near Luton.

Here, we were shown the "grid" – something best described as a giant metal frame populated by hundreds of R2-D2-like "bots" that whizz around within 5mm of each other picking up crates of food and dropping them at stations where human workers finish the job of sorting the products for delivery.

We're told the prime minister especially enjoyed this visit, hardly a surprise given his Silicon Valley "tech bro" credentials.

There is perhaps a parallel electoral universe where Rishi Sunak spent more of his campaign at sites like this talking about high tech, high productivity investment and how it feeds into his vision of what a modern UK economy looks like.

But that’s not where we are.

Instead, today will likely again be taken up with attempts to punch holes in the Labour campaign and unsettle voters about the prospect of a Starmer majority.

By Paul Kelso, business correspondent

Hulme Grammar School in Oldham doesn't feel like a bastion of privilege, but the children whose parents pay around £15,000 a year for them to attend are nevertheless among an elite minority.

A selective fee-paying school, Hulme is one of around 2,500 independent schools that educate 7% of the school population, a minority that is the target of one of Labour's few unapologetically tax-raising policies.

If elected, Labour says it will end the VAT exemption on fees, making them subject to 20% tax, raising an estimated £1.6bn the party says will be used to hire 6,500 teachers in the state sector that educates 93% of children.

Private school parents fear the increase will be passed on directly, pricing some children out, while industry bodies claim some schools will close.

It's the final week of election campaigning and leaders are leaning on all the old favourites in a bid to woo voters.

Sir Keir Starmer's hammering home the need for change, Ed Davey is auditioning for a future series of Total Wipeout, and the PM has been warning voters not to hand Labour a "supermajority".

It's a term the Tories have been banding about for weeks - but what does it mean, and why does Rishi Sunak think it'll work?

What's the PM getting at?

"Supermajority" is being used by Mr Sunak to refer to the scale of the Labour victory being projected by many pollsters - with some saying they could top the 419 seats won by Tony Blair in 1997.

That gave Labour a majority of 179, but with the Tories tipped to do even worse than they did back then (165 seats), Sir Keir Starmer could end up enjoying the biggest parliamentary advantage on record - well over 200 seats according to some projections.

Mr Sunak has said such a "supermajority" would make it harder for the Labour Party to be held to account in the Commons.

Is he right to sound the alarm?

Well, no - because the concept of a supermajority is meaningless in British democracy.

It's a familiar phrase in US politics, where a supermajority of two-thirds really does matter in some votes.

For example, Congress is required for particularly significant legislation like impeaching a president to hit that two-thirds threshold.

In the UK, a governing party only has to hold more than half of the 650 seats in the Commons, whether that be 326 or much more.

A majority of one could be just as effective as something much bigger - as long as the majority party keeps its MPs in line.

Some have argued the "supermajority" concept isn't without merit, for example in referendums, but it's certainly not relevant to this election despite the Tories' best efforts to make it so.

Whether it's healthy for parliament to be as dominated by one party as it could be from 5 July is another question - but whatever the majority Labour might have, there'll be nothing super about it.

Sir Keir Starmer has said a big majority would be "better for the country", as the Tories continue to urge voters to proceed with caution and not hand Labour a "blank cheque".

With just 48 hours to go until polling day, Rishi Sunak has repeated the warning that Labour could achieve a "supermajority", allowing the party to raise taxes, which he claimed is in its DNA.

In an interview with The Times, Sir Keir said he needed a "strong mandate" to reform the planning system and improve the economy.

Asked if he was saying the bigger a majority, the better, he told the newspaper: "Better for the country.

"Because it means we can roll up our sleeves and get on with the change we need."

This follows weeks of warnings from the Conservatives of a Labour "supermajority", in a bid to prevent bleeding votes to Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats.

Speaking at a campaign event in Leicestershire, Mr Sunak said: "Once you've given Labour a blank cheque, you won't be able to get it back.

"And that means that your taxes are going up: your car, your pension, your savings, your work, you name it, they will tax it thousands and thousands of pounds.

"It's what they always do. It's in their DNA."

On Tuesday, the prime minister is expected to say: "If just 130,000 people switch their vote and lend us their support, we can deny [Keir] Starmer that supermajority."

Good morning!

We are in the last 48 hours of the general election campaign - and the gloves are well and truly off in the race to secure the keys to Number 10.

Here's what you need to know today:

• It's been an early start for Prime Minister Rishi Sunak, who has already been packing people's shopping at an Ocado distribution warehouse this morning;

• That won't be the last we see of him today, with a number of last minute visits planned in the South East on Tuesday;

• Mr Sunak is telling voters that they have the power to dictate the future of Britain, with as few as 130,000 votes set to determine the result of Thursday's election;

• Meanwhile, there's also no slowing down in the Labour camp. Sir Keir Starmer will be in the Midlands as his party warn of the risk of waking up to five more years of Conservative government;

• Labour are today pushing plans to use High Street opticians like Specsavers to cut NHS waiting lists, as it's revealed patients are losing their eyesight while they wait for treatment;

• AndSir Ed Davey continues his 1,343-mile five-day tour of constituencies from John O'Groats to Land's End ahead of Thursday's general election today.

We'll be discussing all this and more with:

• Maria Caulfield, Conservative candidate, at 7.15am;
• Labour's Wes Streeting at 8.15am;
• SNP's Westminster leader Stephen Flynn.

Follow along for the very latest in the general election campaign.

That's all from Politics Hub for tonight.

Scroll down to read our 10pm bulletin to catch up on all the day's political news.

Be sure to join us tomorrow as the final 48 hours of campaigning get underway.

Around ten days ago, Harry Potter author JK Rowling wrote a 2,000-word essay in The Times about how she could not vote for Labour or Sir Keir Starmer, based on their position on gender recognition (read more here).

Speaking to the same paper tonight, Sir Keir has said he is hopeful he can meet with the writer - who has been critical of trans women accessing single-sex spaces.

In a social media post at the end of last week, Rowling said: "Do biological males with gender recognition certificates have the right to enter women-only spaces?

"It's a simple yes/no question."

Asked about this by The Times, Sir Keir said: "No. They don't have that right.

"They shouldn't. That's why I've always said biological women's spaces need to be protected."

Asked if he will he meet Rowling? "I've indicated a willingness [to do so]."

He adds: "Hopefully we can get that organised."

It's 10pm. Here is your round up of what happened today as we entered the final lap of the election race.

• Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker spoke candidly about his expectation the Tories would lose the election (see our 19:19 post for more);
• He also went into detail about why he thinks he should be the party's next leader (read his explanation in our 19.30 post);
• We've heard fromPrime Minister Rishi Sunak, who promised to "work his socks off" for the British people;
• And we've also explained what the "supermajority" the PM keeps warning about actually is - and what it means in practice (spoiler: it's not really a thing,see our 14.50 post for more);
  
• Political correspondent Rob Powellhas dug into why Mr Sunak keeps talking like he's lost the election, suggesting it may do little to help the Tories get their voters to the polls on Thursday (see 14.30 post).

• Labour leader Sir Keir Starmerwas at a campaign event in Hitchin today, where he has urged the British public to "vote for a summer of change" with his party;
• He was also asked by our political editor Beth Rigby if he worries about his popularity, and potentially having the "longest wedding and shortest honeymoon" with the British public;
• Sir Keir said his record speaks for itself, claiming his "track record as a leader is clear" - and Labour is a changed party.

• And, in typical Liberal Democrat fashion, Sir Ed Davey partook in a spot of bungee jumping today - his message was to encourage people to "try something new" and vote for his party;
• He then took part in an outdoor Zumba class;
• Political correspondent Matthew Thompson - who has spent much of the campaign with Sir Ed - has explained what a successful day at the polls would look like for the Lib Dems (see 15.35 post).

Tomorrow will see us heading into the final 48 hours of the campaign.

Join us again as we keep across all the important updates as they happen.

During the Politics Hub with Sophy Ridge, Northern Ireland minister Steve Baker spoke about his plans to stand as leader for the Conservatives should his party be defeated on Thursday.

He also spoke candidly about his belief the Tories would lose the election.

In response, Jonathan Ashworth, the shadow paymaster general, said: "It is incredible that less than sixty hours until polling booths open, Tory ministers are undermining the prime minister by boldly flaunting their leadership ambitions on national television.

"From COVID cronyism to trips to the bookies, these Tories always put self-interest and their own ambition ahead of serving their country.

"What this shows is that if the Conservatives are given another five years, the chaos will just continue."

Pollsters at Savanta have asked 2,287 people how they intend to vote on 4 July.

The results suggest the gap between the Conservatives and Labour is down to 15 points - the narrowest in a month.

The Tories are up to 24% of people - their highest score in a month.

The full results - along with the change on the week before - are as follows:

• Labour 39 (+1)
• Tories 24 (+3)
• Reform 13 (-1)
• Lib Dems 10 (-1)
• Greens 4 (-2)
• SNP 3 (+1)
• Other 7 (=)